Thursday, July 18, 2013

2013 Emmys Nominations: My Predictions & Preferences

The 2013 Emmy Nominees were announced this morning.  I haven't read one article nor watched E! or any other site or network that may have already handicapped this award race. This is just me riffing only forty minutes out of bed and learning the nominees literally as I type.

And just to be clear, I'm totally and deliberately snubbing the Movie/Miniseries category, as I think it should now be called the "We Didn't Know if We'd Make the Shortlist in the Categories People Actually Give a Fuck About, so We're Gonna Submit Our Candidates Here" category.  Yeah, I'm looking at you, Sherlock and American Horror Story.  Assholes.

Anyways, let's get this Emmy Party started:

Hugh Bonneville - Downton Abbey
Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels - The Newsroom
Jon Hamm - Mad Men
Damian Lewis - Homeland
Kevin Spacey - House of Cards

So new nominees like Daniels (whom I forgot about) and Spacey (who I expected) have combined to knock out Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire) as well as block Matthew Rhys (The Americans) who had been considered a strong contender.

In this group -- Spacey might actually be the favorite.  I'd say Hamm could pull an upset, but after constantly being nominated with nothing to show for it -- it's hard to really support that statement. Still, he did do some really powerful work this season, so he might have a clearer path than Bonneville, Cranston, Daniels or Lewis -- but I don't think he can get past the new juggernaut in the room named Kevin Spacey.

I'd give it to Jon Hamm as an apology for overlooking him two seasons ago.

Connie Britton - Nashville
Claire Danes - Homeland
Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey
Vera Farmigia - Bates Motel
Elizabeth Moss - Mad Men
Kerry Washington - Scandal
Robin Wright - House of Cards

Which is the bigger surprise: that they expanded this category to SEVEN nominees (suspect Buscemi's reps are wondering why they couldn't do that for the lead dudes), or that Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black) was snubbed, as there was a strong push for her over the past several months. The Americans' Keri Russell is probably considering another disastrous hairdo after being given the high hat. That's for the two Felicity fans out there (a show I never saw myself).

Danes is commonly and constantly showered in Emmy love, but much like Spacey, I think Wright is the lady to beat here. Britton may be TOO safe a choice, Dockery & Farmigia -- the nominations are the wins there.  Moss probably suffers from the same syndrome as Hamm.  Washington does have one of the more buzz-attracting shows & roles, so she's one of the few in the category that could pull off an upset. But I foresee the Cards will be stacked up in favor of Wright.

No muss, no mess...only Moss.

With extremely minimal commentary, here are the nominees for Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress & Guest Actor & Actress in a Drama Series:

Bobby Cannavale - Boardwalk Empire
Jonathan Banks - Breaking Bad
Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad
Jim Carter - Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin - Homeland

I believe it's a face-off between past winners Paul & Dinklage, and Paul comes out on top.

Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad
Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey
Emilia Clarke - Game of Thrones
Morena Baccarin - Homeland
Christina Hendricks - Mad Men
Christine Baranski - The Good Wife

Is it possible that someone can unseat the Countess? No, probably not, though Anna Gunn's work in "Fifty-One" (the 4th episode of Breaking Bad S5.1) gives her an outside shot.

Rupert Friend - Quinn on Homeland
Robert Morse - Cooper on Mad Men
Harry Hamlin - Cutler on Mad Men
Dan Bucatinsky - Novack on Scandal
Nathan Lane - Hayden on The Good Wife
Michael J. Fox - Canning on The Good Wife

I think it comes down to the guest actors on The Good Wife, and although Fox is always gong to have a certain amount of "Oh, we GOTTA give it to him" impulses that are activated when voters see his name -- Nathan Lane did more heavy lifting in what was otherwise a weaker season of that series, and is more deserving of the award.

Diana Rigg - Olenna on Game of Thrones
Linda Cardelini - Sylvia on Mad Men
Joan Cusack - Sheila on Shameless
Margo Martindale - Claudia on The Americans
Carrie Preston - Elsbeth on The Good Wife
Jane Fonda - Leona on The Newsroom

Let me whittle down these six to a more likely three: Martindale, Preston & Rigg. Martindale won an Emmy a couple years ago for another FX series (Justified) and Preston currently holds down jobs on THREE different series (The Good Wife, True Blood and Person of Interest).

Rigg?  Her full title is DAME ENID DIANA ELIZABETH RIGG. She's essentially the Maggie Smith/Countess/Dowager/Whatever in this category.  Sorry Carrie & Margo, but you're up against thespian royalty here.

Banks, Smith, Morse and Rigg (in a tough pick over Preston).

Onto the comedies...

Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Jason Bateman - Arrested Development
Louis C.K. - Louie
Don Cheadle - House of Lies
Matt LeBlanc - Episodes
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory

Baldwin and Parsons both have multiple wins in this category, but I don't think either is in line for the award this year. Cheadle and LeBlanc barely cause enough of a ripple to be considered strong contenders.  It really comes down to Bateman and Louis C.K.  There has been an enormous push to award Louis C.K. an Emmy for his performance as opposed to "only" his writing, and I'd have to agree that he's the clear favorite here.

Same, although LeBlanc is pretty damned good.

Laura Dern - Enlightened
Lena Dunham - Girls
Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Veep
Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation

A difficult category to call. Lena Dunham was the "It Girl" last year, but she's suffering from a not-so slight backlash after the 2nd season of Girls. Tina Fey may be a sentimental favorite since 30 Rock has now left the air, but Julia Louis-Dreyfus is a very strong contender (slight pun based on Veep's current storyline).

I don't see Falco returning to the podium again, and Dern's nomination may be here "win enough" here. Poehler is the definite dark horse in this category, and she has the best chance of breaking past Fey and Louis-Dreyfus for the win.  But I'm gonna say sentimentality wins the day, and they give the award to Fey by a nose over her buddy Poehler.  I'm sure they both appreciate my comparing the two of them to horses.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus deserves to win every year she's nominated for this role.

As for the Supporting and Guest categories...

Adam Driver - Adam on Girls
Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Mitchell on Modern Family
Ed O'Neill - Jay on Modern Family
Ty Burrell - Phil on Modern Family
Bill Hader - SNL
Tony Hale - Gary on Veep

Interesting NOT to see Eric Stonestreet in the mix this year for Modern Family, though locking down three nominations in the category is more than enough. If there's one category I think Mod-Fam will continue its reign, it's this one. Burrell may often be the MVP on this series, but this is Ed O'Neill's first nomination EVER. I think it will be his first win as well.

Jane Krakowski - Jenna on 30 Rock
Jane Lynch - Sue on Glee
Sofia Vergara - Gloria on Modern Family
Julie Bowen - Claire on Modern Family
Merritt Weaver - Zoey on Nurse Jackie
Mayim Bialik - Amy on The Big Bang Theory
Anna Chlumsky - Amy on Veep

Outside of the previous category, I still contend that this will be the year that Modern Family stumbles. While I'd love to see Weaver nab a win, and Chlumsky wasn't exactly a slouch either, I genuinely think it's going to be Mayim Bialik. She's "blossomed" from a child actress to one of the strongest characters of the world's most popular sitcom.

And yes, I deserve to be forced to wear the ugliest hat imaginable for that Blossom reference.

Will Forte - Paul on 30 Rock
Nathan Lane - Pepper on Modern Family
Bobby Cannavale - Cruz on Nurse Jackie
Louis C.K. - host on SNL
Justin Timberlake - host on SNL
Bob Newhart - Arthur on The Big Bang Theory

I think it comes down to the SNL hosts and Newhart.  Louis C.K. will be racking up wins for his own show, and Timberlake has already won this very same award TWICE before (in 2009 & 2011). So I think the all time classic comedy icon wins the gold. Way to go, Bob!

Elaine Stritch - Colleen on 30 Rock
Molly Shannon - Eileen on Enlightened
Dot-Marie Jones - Shannon on Glee
Melissa Leo - Laurie on Louie
Melissa McCarthy - host on SNL
Kristen Wiig - host on SNL

McCarthy wins for being the best female host of SNL, there really hasn't been all that many memorable women to host SNL. Tina Fey maybe?  Emma Stone?  Maybe go all the way back to Candice Bergen?  Now I definitely think McCarthy wins here.

Hale, Weaver, Newhart & McCarthy would all be basking in Emmy glory.

From the least important categories to the most....drumroll please!

30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family

Arrested Development did NOT secure a nomination here? Perhaps some voters didn't care for the "You Need to Watch Them ALL to Get those Jokes" format? Girls got too much flak to win this year; I think 30 Rock's win will be in the Actress category for the show's writer/creator Tina Fey, and I just don't foresee The Big Bang Theory winning (although the reaction from the Big Bang Haters would almost such a win worth it).

It comes down to the final three on the list.  Unless I'm mistaken, Modern Family has won this award every year since the dawn of time, but it feels like it's time for a changing of the guard. I say it comes down to Louie and Veep. Even with all the cursing and adult themes, Veep still might be the safer choice compared to the downright avant-garde approach Louie C.K. takes with his show.  

But...I have a vision of Louis C.K. with an embarrassed and perturbed look on his face as he juggles multiple awards on his lap, including this one.



Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Mad Men

The most talked about episode of any TV series here is undoubtedly the "Red Wedding" episode from Game of Thrones. And that episode is about as good a reason as any why Game of Thrones will NOT win the award. Geysers of blood don't typically go with Emmy awards unless it's on the Beach at Normandy.

Downton Abbey had a bit of a body count as well this season, but it felt even more like a highbrow soap opera this past season than ever before (if that's possible). 

Homeland simply wasn't as strong in its sophomore season, and a show that felt so gritty, real and intense began a descent into the both mildly and then wildly implausible.

Breaking Bad may need to wait until it's ALL over to finally collect the hardware for Best Drama, because despite how good those eight episodes were -- they still only delivered half a season.

Mad Men clocked in with a solid sixth season, but the numerous wins in the past feel like baggage it may not be able to overcome.  The real battle is shaping up to be in 2014 -- when Mad Men & Breaking Bad go head-to-head in their final shots at Emmy glory.

That leaves the new kid on the block: House of Cards. The House takes it not just for the actual quality and pedigree of the series, but also as a further acknowledgement of how TV viewing has dramatically changed. Remember just a few years ago, when industry people were wringing their hands due to the fact that almost all the nominations were going to cable networks?
Welcome to the Internet, bitches.


Breaking Bad by a few of Cranston's whiskers over Mad Men & House of Cards.

To peruse the full list of the nominees, learn to use Google.  Or copy & paste this:

1 comment:

  1. I pretty much agree with all of your picks except I would LOVE to see Carrie Preston win for Elsbeth and I don't think Tina Fey will get anything for 30 Rock, simply because I don't feel the momentum as much for it this year.